The future of one of Nigeria's most ambitious infrastructure projects, the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline, is under threat due to the recent coup in Niger and funding challenges on a key domestic pipeline. This pipeline, with a length of 4,128 km and a cost of $13 billion, aims to carry 30 Bcm of gas daily from southern Nigeria to Algeria's gas hub. It has been in the planning stages since 2002 and is seen as a crucial project for Nigeria, which has declared the 2020s to be a decade of gas.

The Nigerian-led regional bloc, ECOWAS, has threatened to deploy troops in response to the coup in Niger, which further adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline. In addition, the faltering AKK pipeline in Nigeria itself raises doubts about the project's viability. Many are now questioning whether it can successfully connect Africa's largest gas reserves with European countries seeking alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons.

Olufola Wusu, an energy expert and partner at Lagos-based Megathos Law Practice, highlights two critical challenges facing the Trans-Saharan gas pipeline project. Firstly, the security situation in Niger and neighboring regions poses a significant risk to the project's stability, both during and after construction. Secondly, the project's reliance on the delayed and self-funded AKK pipeline introduces complexity and uncertainty.

The crisis in Niger has entered a stalemate following the ousting of President Mohamed Bazoum and the subsequent Ecowas sanctions and talk of troop deployment. This situation has raised concerns among security experts, who fear that an invasion by Ecowas could lead to a surge in violence along the Nigeria-Niger border, disrupting peace and stability in the Chad Basin and the wider Sahel region.

A significant portion of the Trans-Saharan pipeline's $13 billion expenditure will be allocated to Niger, a country that currently produces limited oil and gas. However, with the upcoming completion of the Niger-Benin oil pipeline and the potential monetization of Niger's own gas reserves, estimated at 34 Bcm, through the Trans-Saharan pipeline, Niger could benefit economically and address the issue of illicit fuel trade in the region.